The Black Swan
“Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market allow you to put there.”
The book explores the idea of a black swan: a highly improbable event that a) is unpredictable b) has a huge impact and, after the fact, 3) it appears a lot more predictable than anyone would have predicted.
1. We often have a bias towards seeing patterns and causality when in reality, lots of randomness is what caused a certain outcome.
2. A small number of black swans explain most of our history, religion and events in our own personal lives.
3. Black swans are extremely difficult to measure and therefore we discount their probability.
READ IF: You are keen to better understand macro-trends so that you never see the world in the same way again.