The Signal and The Noise
“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
The book explores the human mind in terms of its limitations and biases when making a decision, a prediction or dealing with numbers.
1. More data often doesn't help and can even be counterproductive. Instead of accumulating more information, try to focus on a few reliable indicators.
2. People who appear super confident are usually wrong and have a lot of biases that bring them such confidence.
3. Watch out for patterns in your thinking and examine what they are based on. You are likely to discover some wrong assumptions or biases.
READ IF: You want to better understand how the human brain works and how to make better decisions.